Through more than £11 million in funding from the UK’s Advanced Research + Invention Agency (ARIA), NOC will lead the development of novel and innovative new ways to detect early warning signs of a change in the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre.
Sitting just south of Greenland and Iceland, the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre is a key component of the global ocean’s circulation system, transporting heat around the planet and helping to regulate temperatures in Europe and North America.
Its collapse could have a major global impact on our weather, food, and security, but existing climate models and ocean observations are too limited to forecast accurately a tipping point that could signal its collapse.
The funding, part of ARIA’s five-year, £81 million Forecasting Tipping Points program, covers eight projects, three of which are being led by NOC’s world-leading scientists and worth more than £7 million.
One is an ambitious project exploring the use of novel earth observation platforms, such as airships or high-altitude pseudo-satellites, while a second will unlock the potential of existing international undersea communications cables to become a vast sensor network, starting in the North Atlantic.
The third project will use artificial intelligence (AI) and models to push the limits of existing ocean observations and to transform our ability to detect the early warning signs of Subpolar Gyre collapse, including identifying gaps and uncertainty in data.
NOC is supporting a further five Subpolar Gyre-focused projects, led by other organizations and institutes, with more than £4 million funding.
NOC Chief Scientist Professor Penny Holliday says, “This transformative funding from ARIA comes at a critical moment for ocean and climate science, helping to fulfill an urgent need to address gaps in our understanding of Subpolar North Atlantic tipping points.
“NOC will be at the forefront of this ambitious program developing pioneering innovative approaches—from AI-driven modeling to revolutionary ocean observation technologies—to bridge those knowledge gaps.
“By harnessing our world-leading science and pioneering technology, we will lead and collaborate on multiple projects to enhance our ability to detect early warning signs and better understand the future of our changing ocean.”
The NOC-led projects, which are subject to final contract negotiation, are Full Ocean Fibre, Aerial Experimental Remote sensing of Ocean Salinity, heaT, Advection and Thermohaline Shifts (AEROSTATS) and Subpolar gyre Observations, models and artificial intelligence to Resolve Tipping points and provide Early warning Detection (SORTED).
Full Ocean Fibre, with partner National Physical Laboratory, will target the use of undersea cables for telecommunications and form the backbone of the internet to seafloor sensors across thousands of kilometers.
“Full Ocean Fibre will develop the acoustic and fingerprinting techniques needed to identify ocean processes and provide an unprecedented view of the deep North Atlantic from existing cables,” says project lead Dr. Carl Spingys. “This project sets the scene for a next-generation ocean and climate observing network enabled by the global network of subsea cables.”
AEROSTATS is an ambitious airborne earth observation project focused on observing fine-scale interactions between air, ocean and ice in the Greenland sea ice margins. This will include exploring the use of airborne platforms such as airships or high-altitude pseudo-satellites to create cost-effective, long-term monitoring capabilities with partners NOVELTIS, Radarmetrics, and Pixalytics.
“This is a truly bold airborne earth observation project,” says project lead Professor Christine Gommenginger. “Our vision is cost-effective, long-term monitoring capabilities that support early warning of a potential Subpolar Gyre shutdown. With partners across diverse sectors, we’re a cross-disciplinary group bridging technology, climate science, and a commitment to tackling climate challenges through innovation.”
SORTED will transform the ability to detect and monitor the early warning signs of Subpolar Gyre collapse by pushing the spatiotemporal capabilities of existing observational records using a novel combination of AI and tipping point knowledge from models. It will also identify critical gaps and uncertainties in ocean datasets and make recommendations on the observations still needed to build robust early warning systems for a potential Subpolar Gyre collapse, with partners University of Southampton and University of Bordeaux.
“Circulation in the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre is thought to be moving towards a collapse, but climate models and ocean observations are too limited to forecast these tipping points accurately,” says Dr. Alejandra Sanchez-Franks. “We will be using a novel combination of AI and tipping point knowledge from models to push the spatiotemporal limitations of existing observational records and to underpin the robust early warning systems needed for a potential Subpolar Gyre collapse.”
Scientists from NOC are also involved in five further projects, also focusing on the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre. These are POLEMIX, led by the University of Southampton; TIMBER, led by the University of East Anglia; PROMOTE, led by the University of Reading; VERIFY, led by the University of Leeds; and GRAIL, led by British Antarctic Survey.
These projects cover a wide range of innovation and collaboration, from a new proof-of-concept observing system using autonomous profiling floats to predicting tipping points in marine ecosystems and their consequences and opportunities for the UK, especially for the fishing industry.
They will also involve improving earth system models, creating digital twins to test early warning systems, and using robotics to gather data in Antarctic regions.
